Quiet Resistance

In October, Toronto’s housing market showed early signs of stabilizing. Sales rose but remained below historical averages, while new listings and active inventory declined, yet stayed elevated. Market balance indicators improved slightly but continued to signal softness, with all key price metrics edging lower. The rental market was largely steady, and average rents inched higher. In new construction, monthly sales improved modestly, housing starts rebounded, and completions dipped slightly but remained above annual norms. Mortgage rates eased, aiding housing affordability, while unemployment and arrears held largely steady. Overall, the market balanced ample supply with subdued demand, showing early signs of stabilizing conditions.

Toronto Metro sales rose to 6,138 in October, up 10% month-over-month, down 8% year-over-year, and 19% below the 10-year average. After seasonal adjustment, sales fell 2%. Activity typically eases from May through January, though October often sees a slight uptick.

New listings fell to 16,069 in October, down 17% month-over-month but up 5% year-over-year, and 14% above the 10-year average. This marked the highest October level since at least 2006, excluding the pandemic years. The decline reflects normal seasonal trends, as activity typically slows from May through January except for September’s uptick.

Active inventory fell to 27,808 units in October, down 5% month-over-month. It was 14% higher year-over-year and 60% above the 10-year average. This represented the highest October level on record since at least 2006. The decline aligns with typical seasonal trends, as listings generally ease from May through January except for September’s slight uptick.

In October, the market balance indicator, measured by months of inventory, fell to 4.5, 77% above the 10-year average. Despite improvement, this was one of the weakest readings for this month since at least 2006, with condos remaining weaker than the overall market. Historically, this level has been linked to annual price declines of about 6%.

Another market balance indicator, the sales-to-new listings ratio, rose to 0.38 in October but remained 30% below the 10-year average. Despite the improvement, this was also one of the weakest October readings since at least 2006. Historically, this ratio has corresponded with an annual price decline of around 11%.

In October, the benchmark price for a typical property declined 0.4% month-over-month to $956,800, while the median and average prices also edged down slightly. Overall, prices were 5–7% lower year-over-year and 21–25% below 2022 peaks.

Toronto Metro’s rental market softened in September but remained relatively unchanged after seasonal adjustment. The market balance indicator, rental months of inventory, rose to 1.82, 30% above the 10-year average. This marked one of the weakest September rental performances since at least 2012. Typically, the rental market weakens from August through December.

In September, the average rent in Toronto Metro rose slightly to $2,849, down 3.8% year-over-year and 9% below the 2023 peak. Rent prices typically trend downward from August to January.

In September, new home sales rose to 438 units, standing 79% below the nine-year average. The 12-month total declined to 5,228 units, marking the lowest annual sales level on record since at least 2016 and continuing a 20-month streak.

In September, the high-rise benchmark price rose 0.4% month-over-month to $1,033,317, up 1% year-over-year but still 18% below its peak. Meanwhile, the low-rise benchmark price fell 1.7% to $1,437,447, down 8% year-over-year and 26% below its peak.

Housing starts in Toronto Metro rose in September to 3,678 units, 5% above the 10-year average. Annual construction showed some recovery, with the 12-month total rising to 25,899 units, 34% below the historical norm.

In September, housing completions fell to 3,491 units, 24% above the 10-year average. Over the past 12 months, 36,287 units were completed, standing 2% above the historical norm.

In October, the lowest 5-year fixed mortgage rate dipped by 0.05% to 3.74%, while the lowest 5-year variable rate fell 0.15% to 3.45%, with the gap between the two widening to 0.29 percentage points.

Housing affordability in the Toronto Metro further improved in October, with mortgage payments on a newly purchased typical property consuming 46% of a median household income, down from 47%. While the market remains outside of its historical affordability level, conditions continue to gradually improve.

In September, Ontario’s unemployment rate rose to 7.9%, reflecting an 11% annual increase and standing 17% above the 10-year average. Nationally, the rate remained at 7.1%, 7% above the 10-year norm, while in Toronto, the unemployment rate held at 8.9%, 19% above the 10-year average.

In July, Ontario’s mortgage arrears rate remained at 0.22%, reflecting a 38% year-over-year increase and standing 101% above the 10-year average. Nationally, the rate held at 0.23%, representing a 15% annual increase and 5% above the 10-year average.