RARE’s Economic Research Department meticulously examines TREB’s monthly data releases, distilling them into an easily digestible and insightful format within our market report.
December closed with the market moving quietly into year-end. Activity cooled, pressure lingered, and familiar imbalances remained in place. Beneath seasonal slowdown, subtle shifts hint at what may define the path ahead. The full picture reveals where momentum stalled, and why it matters.
In December, Toronto’s housing market showed typical seasonal softness. Home sales fell sharply and remained below historical norms, while new listings and active inventory also declined but stayed above long-term averages. Market balance indicators pointed to ongoing weakness, with prices continuing to ease. The rental market softened, while new-construction activity remained depressed, though housing starts rebounded modestly and completions fell. Financing conditions were mixed, leaving affordability unchanged at strained levels. Unemployment rates improved, but mortgage arrears in Ontario continued to rise. Overall, the market remains defined by subdued demand, elevated supply, and persistent affordability pressures, with little evidence of a sustained recovery.
In December, Toronto Metro sales continued to weaken, which is not uncommon for this time of year, as sales usually decline between May and December. Sales fell to 3,697, down 26% month-over-month, up 10% year-over-year, and 18% below the 10-year average. After seasonal adjustment, sales were unchanged.
New listings fell to 5,299 in December, down 52% month-over-month but up 13% year-over-year, and 12% above the 10-year average. The decline aligns with typical seasonal patterns, as activity typically slows from May through January except for September’s uptick.