Breaking the Pattern

In June, sales in the Toronto metro area rose to 6,770, up 3% month over month and 8% year over year, though still 13% below the 10-year average. This increase was unusual for this time of year, as sales volumes typically decline from June through December.

New listings edged down 2% month over month to 17,282 units in June, down 13% year over year but 1% above the 10-year average. Listing volume generally decreases from June through December.

Active inventory rose to 27,329 units in June, increasing 1% month-over-month while remaining 14% lower year-over-year and 38% above the 10-year average. The increase was slightly unusual for this time of year, as active inventory typically declines from June through December.

In June, the market balance indicator, measured by months of inventory (MOI), edged down to 4.0, standing 49% above the 10-year average. Historically, this level has been associated with annual price declines of approximately 7%. Condominiums continued to underperform the broader market.

Another market balance indicator, the sales-to-new listings ratio, rose to 0.39 in June, standing 15% below the 10-year average. Historically, a ratio at this level has been associated with annual price declines of approximately 11%.

In June, the benchmark price for a typical property fell 0.6% month-over-month to $940,800, while the median and average prices also edged down. On an annual basis, prices remained 4–6% lower year-over-year and continued to sit 21–26% below the 2022 peak levels.

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In May, Toronto Metro’s rental market paused its recent tightening trend. The market balance indicator, rental months of inventory, ticked up to 1.56, moving further away from the historical norm and reaching 29% above the 10-year average. This shift represents a slight divergence from the typical seasonal trend where the rental market strengthens between January and August.

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In May, the average rent in the Toronto Metro climbed steadily to $2,764, further narrowing its year-over-year decline to 1.9% and standing 11% below the 2023 peak. This increase aligns with the typical seasonal pattern in which rents rise from February through August.

New home sales fell to 1,023 units in May, slipping to 57% below the ten-year average. Over the past 12 months, total sales rose to 6,798 units, though they remained 73% below the historical norm.

In May, the high-rise benchmark price edged up to $1,029,489, remaining unchanged month-over-month, while staying 1% higher year-over-year and 18% below its peak. Meanwhile, the low-rise benchmark price rose 0.4% to $1,427,543, reflecting a 5% year-over-year decline and remaining 26% below its peak.

In May, housing starts in the Toronto Metro increased to 3,124 units, rising to 8% above the 10-year average. Over the past 12 months, total starts declined to 26,306 units, slipping further to 31% below the historical norm.

Housing completions recorded a notable rebound to 2,224 units in May, although levels remained 30% below the 10-year average. The 12-month aggregate continued to soften, with 29,241 units completed, which is 16% below the historical average.

In June, the lowest five-year fixed mortgage rate declined slightly to 3.94%, while the lowest five-year variable rate remained unchanged at 3.30%, narrowing the gap between the two to 0.64 percentage points.

Housing affordability in the Toronto metropolitan area showed a modest improvement in June. Mortgage payments on a newly purchased typical property consumed 43% of median household income, down from 44% in the previous month.

In May, Ontario’s unemployment rate declined to 7.0%, marking a sharp 11% year-over-year decline, though it remained 3% above its 10-year average. Nationally, the unemployment rate fell to 6.6%, aligning with its long-term average. Meanwhile, Toronto’s rate eased to 7.6%, sitting just 1% above its 10-year baseline.

In March, Ontario’s mortgage arrears rate rose to 0.31%, reflecting a 55% year-over-year increase and standing 163% above the 10-year average. Nationally, the rate held steady at 0.28%, representing a 27% annual increase and remaining 28% above the 10-year average.