Key Developments

The Ottawa housing market saw a seasonal slowdown in December, with lower sales and new listings but elevated inventory levels. Market conditions weakened due to high inventory relative to sales, while prices rose slightly. Rent prices softened, new construction remained strong, and rising borrowing costs further strained affordability amid broader economic challenges.


Sales Reached the Seasonal Low

Sales in the Ottawa Metro area declined in December, with 613 sales recorded—42% lower than the previous month, 9% higher than the same month last year, and 4% below the 10-year average. Sales typically decrease from May through December.

OTTAWA METRO SALES

New Listings Activity Declined

New listings dropped in December to 603, representing a 55% monthly decline. However, they were 15% higher year-over-year and 1% above the 10-year average. Listings usually decline from September through December.

OTTAWA METRO NEW LISTINGS

Active Inventory is the Highest Since 2016

Active inventory fell to 3,216 units in December, marking a 20% monthly drop but a 69% year-over-year increase and 52% above the 10-year average. Inventory typically declines from May through December.

OTTAWA METRO ACTIVE LISTINGS

Real Estate Market Balance Was Mixed

The market balance indicator, Months of Inventory, significantly weakened in December, jumping to a level 43% above the 10-year average. This was primarily due to a combination of high inventory and low sales. The market balance usually weakens between October and January.

OTTAWA METRO MONTHS OF INVENTORY

The Sales-to-New Listings ratio, another market balance indicator got stronger in December, but weakened after seasonal adjustment to 5% below the 10-year average level. It typically strengthens from September to December.

OTTAWA METRO SALES-TO-NEW LISTINGS

Prices Increased Slightly

Ottawa real estate prices increased slightly in December, with the benchmark price, which represents a typical property, rising by 1.4% to $645,800 compared to the previous month. Prices were 4-5% higher than last year and 11-14% below their 2022 peaks.

OTTAWA METRO REAL ESTATE PRICES

Rent Prices Continued to Weaken

In November, the average rent for one- and two-bedroom units in the Ottawa Metro area decreased slightly to $2,259. It was down 1% monthly and 2.7% annually. This marked the first annual decline since September 2021.

OTTAWA METRO AVERAGE RENT PRICE

New Construction Sales Were Strong

New construction sales in November were 22% above the 6-year average. Over the past 12 months, 3,639 units were sold, 20% below the historical average.

OTTAWA METRO NEW CONSTRUCTION SALES

New Construction Prices Increased Slightly

The median price of new construction single-family units rose to $932,500 in November, a 0.3% monthly increase, unchanged year-over-year, but 10% below the peak.

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OTTAWA METRO NEW CONSTRUCTION MEDIAN PRICES

Housing Starts Were Typical

Housing starts were strong in November, exceeding the 10-year average by 8%. Over the past twelve months, construction began on 11,554 units – 6% above the historical average.

OTTAWA METRO HOUSING STARTS

Housing Completions Remained Elevated

Housing completions in November were 11% above the 10-year average. Over the past 12 months, 11,742 units were completed in the Ottawa Metro area, 22% higher than the historical average.

OTTAWA METRO HOUSING COMPLETIONS

Mortgage Rates Narrowed

In December, the lowest 5-year fixed mortgage rate rose by 0.1% to 4.14%, while the lowest 5-year variable rate decreased by 0.5% to 4.35% in response to a 0.5% interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada. The gap between the two narrowed to 0.21%.

LOWEST DISCOUNTED 5-YEAR MORTGAGE RATES IN CANADA

Housing Affordability Slightly Deteriorated

Housing affordability in Ottawa Metro worsened slightly in December, driven by a modest rise in borrowing costs. Covering mortgage payments on a newly purchased property now requires 34% of a typical household’s income, up from 33%

TORONTO METRO HOUSING AFFORDABILITY

Labour Market Worsened

Ontario’s unemployment rate rose to 7.6% in November, a 25% annual increase and 14% above the 10-year average. Nationally, the rate climbed to 6.8%, 3% above the 10-year norm.

OTTAWA METRO UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

Mortgage Arrears Rose

Ontario’s mortgage arrears rate increased to 0.17% in September, a 70% rise year-over-year and 59% above the 10-year average. Nationally, the rate remained at 0.2%, a 25% annual increase but 11% below the 10-year average.

MORTGAGE ARREARS IN ONTARIO

THE TAKEAWAY

The Ottawa housing market experienced a seasonal slowdown in December, with sales and new listings both dropping from the previous month. Active inventory also fell but stayed higher than in previous years, marking the highest December level since 2016. Market balance indicators weakened as inventory remained high relative to sales, and prices rose modestly compared to the previous month. Rent prices softened further, recording the first annual decline in two years, while new construction activity continued to show resilience with steady sales, starts, and completions exceeding historical trends.

Mortgage rates showed mixed movements, narrowing the gap between fixed and variable rates, while affordability worsened slightly due to rising borrowing costs. Labour market challenges and increasing mortgage arrears added to the pressure on housing stability, reflecting broader economic uncertainties.