The Waiting Game

In August, sales in the Toronto metro area fell to 5,057 units, down 16% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year, standing 24% below the 10-year average. The decline was in line with the typical seasonal pattern, as sales volumes generally decrease from June through December.

New listings fell 17% month-over-month to 12,075 units in August, down 14% year-over-year and 4% below the 10-year average. The decrease was in line with the typical seasonal pattern, as listing volume generally declines from June through December.

Active inventory declined to 24,482 units in August, down 6% month-over-month, while remaining 11% lower year-over-year and 37% above the 10-year average. The decline was in line with the typical seasonal pattern, with active inventory generally decreasing from June through December.

In August, the market balance indicator, measured by months of inventory (MOI), rose to 4.8, 63% above the 10-year average. Historically, this level has been associated with annual price declines of approximately 9%.

Another market balance indicator, the sales-to-new listings ratio, rose to 0.42 in August, standing 21% below the 10-year average. Historically, a ratio at this level has been associated with annual price declines of approximately 9%.

In August, the benchmark price for a typical property declined 0.9% month-over-month to $925,900, with median and average prices also softening. Prices were 3–4% lower year-over-year and were 26–29% below 2022 peak levels.

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In July, Toronto Metro’s rental market continued to tighten. The market balance indicator, measured by rental months of inventory, declined to 1.19, remaining 19% above the 10-year average. This strengthening was consistent with the typical seasonal pattern, as rental market conditions generally improve between January and August. However, the rental months of inventory indicator was recently revised, and it should be interpreted with caution.

In July, the average rent in the Toronto Metro edged down to $2,785, declining 1.8% year-over-year while remaining 11% below the 2023 peak. This slight decrease contrasts with the typical seasonal pattern, as rents generally rise from February through August.

New home sales fell to 1,018 units in July, but the shortfall from the 10-year average narrowed significantly to 39%. The 12-month total also improved, reaching 8,122 units, but remained 66% below the historical average.

In July, the benchmark price for new high-rise units edged up to $1,054,938, 2% higher year-over-year and 16% below its peak. Meanwhile, the benchmark price for new low-rise units increased to $1,362,433, 8% lower year-over-year and 30% below its peak.

In July, housing starts contracted sharply to 1,540 units, 57% below the 10-year average. Over the past 12 months, total starts declined to 26,557 units, 30% below long-term norms.

Housing completions fell sharply to 1,009 units in July, 67% below the 10-year average. The 12-month total dropped to 27,374 units, 21% below the historical average.

In August, the lowest five-year fixed mortgage rate held at 3.99%, while the lowest five-year variable rate stayed at 3.35%, keeping the spread unchanged at 0.64 percentage points.

Housing affordability in the Toronto metropolitan area improved in August, with mortgage payments on a newly purchased typical property consuming 43% of median household income, down from 44% in the previous month.

In July, Ontario’s unemployment rate edged down to 6.8%, 14% lower than a year earlier while remaining in line with its 10-year average. Nationally, the unemployment rate eased to 6.4%, falling 3% below its long-term average. Meanwhile, Toronto’s rate declined to 6.8%, moving 10% below its 10-year baseline.

In May, Ontario’s mortgage arrears rate rose to 0.32%, reflecting a 52% year-over-year increase and standing 165% above the 10-year average. Nationally, the rate increased to 0.29%, representing a 32% annual increase and remaining 33% above the 10-year average.