RARE’s Economic Research Department meticulously examines TREB’s monthly data releases, distilling them into an easily digestible and insightful format within our market report.
Toronto’s housing market steadied in September, showing subtle shifts beneath the surface. With conditions still under pressure but early signs of change emerging, the path forward may be starting to take shape.
In September, Toronto’s housing market remained weak but relatively stable, with sales improving while new listings and active inventory stayed elevated. Market balance indicators were weak, putting continued downward pressure on prices, with benchmark prices edging lower. Rental prices declined slightly, though the rental market balance strengthened. New home sales fell to record lows and housing starts remained subdued, while completions rose sharply. Mortgage rates eased, supporting a modest improvement in affordability. On the economic front, national unemployment reached its highest level since 2016 outside the pandemic, while Toronto and Ontario rates edged lower, and mortgage arrears continued to rise, highlighting household financial strain. Overall, ample supply and muted demand kept prices under pressure, though market conditions are gradually improving.
Toronto Metro sales rose to 5,592 in September, up 2% after seasonal adjustment. Sales increased 7% month-over-month and 12% year-over-year but remained 21% below the 10-year average. Activity typically eases from May through January.
New listings surged to 19,260 in September, up 37% month-over-month and 6% year-over-year, standing 19% above the 10-year average. This marked the highest September level since at least 2006, excluding the pandemic years. The increase in new listings can be partially attributed to seasonality, as there is typically an uptick in September.